2026 Senate Polls: GOP Leads Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona; +5 Generic Ballot | GOP Digest May 13, 2026

Pennsylvania Senate: McCormick leads Casey 49–45

A new Emerson College poll shows a 3-point GOP swing from last month as inflation and border concerns dominate among likely voters in the Philadelphia suburbs. Casey's campaign acknowledged "extraordinary headwinds" in a memo to donors.

Generic ballot: Republicans +5 nationally

The latest RealClearPolitics average shows the GOP with a 5-point congressional generic ballot lead — the widest advantage since 2010. A gap of this size historically translates to 20–30 House seat pickups.

Arizona: Kari Lake clears the field

Two rivals dropped out and endorsed Lake, setting up a fall matchup against Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego on border-heavy terrain that strongly favors Republicans. Cook Political rates the race a Toss-Up.

Trump backs Barrett in MI-7; NRSC adds Lombardo (NV) to Battleground 26

Rep. Tom Barrett has outraised his Democrat opponent 3-to-1 in Q1. Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo's addition to the NRSC program unlocks $3.5M in coordinated spending and national staff support.

House Democrat under ethics inquiry for double-billing taxpayers $14,000

Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) faces an Office of Congressional Ethics inquiry after her office billed the House for travel simultaneously reimbursed by a third-party PAC — the latest ethics headache in a competitive district.

NRSC hits record $78M cash on hand; Democrats burning 3-to-1 in toss-up races

McCormick outraises Casey 2-to-1 and holds $4.1M more cash on hand. Senate Leadership Fund has reserved $22M in Georgia and Pennsylvania fall TV time, locking in rates early.