GOP Digest — May 13, 2026 | Republicans Surge in Key Battlegrounds
New polling shows GOP candidates leading in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona Senate races. Republicans hold a 5-point national generic ballot advantage — the widest margin since 2010 — as Democrats burn through cash and face fresh ethics scrutiny.
Pennsylvania Senate: McCormick leads Casey 49–45
A new Emerson College poll shows a 3-point GOP swing from last month as inflation and border concerns dominate among likely voters in the Philadelphia suburbs. Casey's campaign acknowledged "extraordinary headwinds" in a memo to donors.
Generic ballot: Republicans +5 nationally
The latest RealClearPolitics average shows the GOP with a 5-point congressional generic ballot lead — the widest advantage since 2010. A gap of this size historically translates to 20–30 House seat pickups.
Arizona: Kari Lake clears the field
Two rivals dropped out and endorsed Lake, setting up a fall matchup against Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego on border-heavy terrain that strongly favors Republicans. Cook Political rates the race a Toss-Up.
Trump backs Barrett in MI-7; NRSC adds Lombardo (NV) to Battleground 26
Rep. Tom Barrett has outraised his Democrat opponent 3-to-1 in Q1. Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo's addition to the NRSC program unlocks $3.5M in coordinated spending and national staff support.
House Democrat under ethics inquiry for double-billing taxpayers $14,000
Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) faces an Office of Congressional Ethics inquiry after her office billed the House for travel simultaneously reimbursed by a third-party PAC — the latest ethics headache in a competitive district.
NRSC hits record $78M cash on hand; Democrats burning 3-to-1 in toss-up races
McCormick outraises Casey 2-to-1 and holds $4.1M more cash on hand. Senate Leadership Fund has reserved $22M in Georgia and Pennsylvania fall TV time, locking in rates early.
Senate Battleground Tracker
| State | Republican | Democrat | R% | D% | Spread | Pollster |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | McCormick | Casey | 49 | 45 | R+4 | Emerson, 5/10 |
| Georgia | Collins | Ossoff | 48 | 46 | R+2 | SurveyUSA, 5/8 |
| Arizona | Lake | Gallego | 47 | 46 | R+1 | OH Predictive, 5/11 |
| Michigan | James | Peters | 46 | 46 | TIED | EPIC-MRA, 5/7 |
| Wisconsin | Michels | Baldwin | 47 | 48 | D+1 | Marquette, 5/9 |
| Nevada | Lombardo | Rosen | 48 | 45 | R+3 | Trafalgar, 5/12 |
On the Record
"Democrats spent the last two years inflating your grocery bill, flooding your community with fentanyl, and letting men compete in women's sports. In November, we're going to send them the bill."
— NRSC Chairman Steve Daines, May 12, 2026
Sources
Inbox.GOP · Political Wire — Daily Republican intelligence digest published every weekday morning.