Georgia Senate Runoff 2026: Mike Collins Leads Derek Dooley 55–39% | GOP Digest May 29, 2026

Collins Surges to 16-Point Runoff Lead, Trump Signal Imminent:

A JMC Analytics poll conducted May 26–27 shows Rep. Mike Collins leading Derek Dooley 55–39% in the June 16 Republican Senate runoff, up from a tighter margin immediately after the primary. Multiple top Trump political advisers have quietly joined the Collins campaign — the clearest signal yet that a presidential endorsement is coming. Collins also leads Dooley 61–50% on favorability and holds the advantage even among undecided leaners 39–27%. The winner faces incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff in a state Trump carried in 2024.

Reconciliation Delayed to June 1 Week After Anti-Weaponization Revolt:

Senate Republicans departed for Memorial Day recess without passing the $72 billion ICE and Border Patrol funding package after the Trump administration's eleventh-hour insertion of a $1.8 billion "anti-weaponization" DOJ fund blindsided GOP senators and collapsed the vote. Majority Leader Thune said he was never given advance notice of the fund and plans to bring the reconciliation bill back for a floor vote the week of June 1 after the administration provides answers. The delay underscores the limits of executive surprise plays in a 53-seat majority that can only lose two votes.

Platner Implosion Splits Maine Democrats:

The Democratic Party's Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner is in free fall after a cascade of unearthed Reddit posts — including boasting about sexual acts in portable toilets and mocking a U.S. soldier shot by the Taliban — has forced Democrats to openly disavow him. Sen. Elizabeth Warren dodged questions; Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries went silent. The Maine Democratic Party abruptly canceled a Platner rally, and Rep. Jake Auchincloss called his Nazi-linked tattoo "personally disqualifying." The NRSC is gleefully amplifying each new revelation, and some Democrats are warning the fracture is sparking a party "civil war" weeks before the primary. Incumbent GOP Sen. Susan Collins is watching from a safe distance.

Husted Draws Sherrod Brown Rematch in November:

Republican appointee Jon Husted will face Democrat Sherrod Brown in the November 3 Senate special election for the seat vacated by JD Vance's vice presidency. Brown won the Democratic primary May 5, making a comeback bid after losing his 2024 re-election. Ohio went for Trump by 11 points in 2024, and national Republicans are treating this seat as safe — but Brown is one of the most effective Democratic candidates the party has, making it a race to watch regardless of the fundamentals.

Moody Leads GOP Field for Rubio Seat:

Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody — appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis to fill Marco Rubio's seat — is running in the August 18 primary and is the clear favorite for the November 3 special election. Democrats have fielded state Rep. Angie Nixon and Alexander Vindman, the former NSC official whose Ukraine testimony helped trigger Trump's first impeachment. Florida's deep-red trajectory makes this seat strongly Republican in November, but the Vindman candidacy ensures national Democratic attention and fundraising.

Dead Heat Poll Complicates Ossoff Narrative:

A new Quantus Insights Peach State poll shows Sen. Jon Ossoff tied with Rep. Mike Collins at 38–38%, a sharp contrast to an earlier Emerson poll showing Ossoff +5. Ossoff has $32 million banked, but the tie underscores that whoever wins the June 16 runoff will enter a genuinely competitive general election in a Trump 2024 state. Georgia remains the marquee toss-up of the 2026 cycle.