June 2 Primary Day 2026: Iowa, Montana, California Vote as House Weighs Iran War Powers | GOP Digest June 2, 2026

Iowa, Montana, California, and Three More States Vote:

Voters head to the polls in Iowa, Montana, California, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota on the most consequential primary day of the 2026 cycle. In Iowa, Trump-endorsed Rep. Ashley Hinson enters the Republican Senate primary as a commanding frontrunner — a JMC Analytics poll showed her leading challenger Jim Carlin 58–19% for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst. In Montana, Trump and retiring Sen. Steve Daines have united behind former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who significantly outraises his two primary opponents for the open seat. In California's jungle primary for governor, former Fox News host Steve Hilton — Trump's pick — is locked in a tight three-way race with Democrat Xavier Becerra (28%) and Tom Steyer (22%), with Hilton at 21%; all three are fighting for the top-two slots that advance to November. IRAN / WAR POWERS — House Faces Do-or-Die Vote on Resolution to Halt Trump's Military Campaign: The House confronts a constitutional deadline today to vote on H.Con.Res. 38, a Democratic resolution directing President Trump to withdraw U.S. forces from hostilities against Iran. Republican leaders canceled the vote twice before the Memorial Day recess after it appeared likely to pass — a bipartisan coalition of war-weary members and civil libertarians has repeatedly nearly broken the 218-vote threshold. The Senate has already advanced its version, with four Republicans — Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Rand Paul, and Bill Cassidy — voting to advance the measure. Even if both chambers pass the resolution, Trump would veto it, but the symbolic rebuke has GOP leaders desperate to hold the line.

Reconciliation Back on Track After Anti-Weaponization Fund Dropped:

Senate Majority Leader John Thune is aiming to bring the $72B ICE and CBP reconciliation package to the floor this week after the Trump administration agreed to scrap the $1.776B anti-weaponization legal defense fund that had blocked passage before the recess. With it removed, leadership expects the votes are now there. Separately, FISA Section 702 runs out June 12; a short-term patch keeps it alive, but a long-term deal remains unresolved as privacy hawks demand a warrant requirement and Speaker Mike Johnson's CBDC-ban rider cannot pass the Senate.

Collins Opens 14-Point Lead in Senate Runoff Ahead of June 16 Vote:

Rep. Mike Collins leads former football coach Derek Dooley by 14 points — 50% to 36% — in a JMC Analytics survey conducted May 26–27, with 15% still undecided. Collins finished first in the May 19 primary with 40.5%. Early voting for the June 16 runoff begins June 8. Democrat Jon Ossoff waits as the general-election nominee with maximum time to fundraise.

NRCC Posts Record $47M Q1, $78M Cash on Hand:

The National Republican Congressional Committee raised $47.1 million in the first quarter of 2026, the largest Q1 haul in committee history, with March 2026 its strongest single month ever at $28.1 million. The committee holds $78.2 million cash on hand and $164.4 million raised this cycle, outpacing the DCCC's $45.3M Q1. Speaker Mike Johnson posted a personal record of $34 million in Q1, and Republican outside groups including the Congressional Leadership Fund have accumulated nearly $193 million this cycle.

Iowa and Montana Open Seats Favor GOP Hold:

With Republicans strongly favored to hold both Iowa and Montana open seats, today's Democratic primaries reveal the opposition's bench depth heading into November. In Montana, Reilly Neill won the Democratic primary. Neither state is viewed as a realistic flip target, giving Republicans two near-certain holds. Democrats' clearest Senate paths remain Arizona (Ruben Gallego), Georgia (Jon Ossoff), and Ohio.