Texas Senate Runoff 2026: Paxton Leads Cornyn 48–45% | GOP Digest May 26, 2026

Texas Senate Runoff Underway (Cornyn vs. Paxton):

Polls are open today in Texas for the Republican Senate primary runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and Trump-endorsed Attorney General Ken Paxton. The final pre-election survey from the University of Houston showed Paxton leading 48%–45% among likely GOP runoff voters. Trump endorsed Paxton just days before the vote, declaring on Truth Social: "I know Ken well, have seen him tested at the highest and most difficult levels, and he is a winner." Cornyn, a four-term incumbent who led the March primary 42–40, vowed to fight to the finish, arguing GOP voters must choose between a strong general-election candidate and a weak one.

Trump Delivers Another Scalp: Massie Out in Kentucky:

Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein defeated incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie 54.9%–45.1% on May 19 in what became the most expensive U.S. House primary in American history — over $32 million in total ad spending. The loss cements Trump's grip on the House GOP conference, dispatching one of its most vocal dissenters.

Collins Surges Ahead of June 16 Runoff:

A new Quantus Insights snap poll shows Rep. Mike Collins leading former Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley 54%–37% in the Georgia GOP Senate runoff, with 9% undecided. Collins led the May 19 primary at 40.5%, Dooley at 30.2%, and Rep. Buddy Carter at 25.1%. The runoff winner faces Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff in November — one of Republicans' top pickup opportunities.

NRCC Posts Best Year-to-Date Haul in Committee History:

The NRCC announced it has raised $57.6 million year-to-date — the strongest YTD total in the committee's history — capped by a $10.4 million April. The NRSC has also turned the corner, paying off $26 million in debt and distributing the FEC maximum of $62,000 to each Republican Senate incumbent up for reelection. Both committees are outpacing their Democratic counterparts heading into the cycle's home stretch.

Two House Democrats Out Amid Ethics Collapse:

Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) resigned after the House Ethics Committee substantiated 25 counts of violations, including allegations her family's healthcare company improperly received more than $5 million in disaster relief funds. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) also announced his resignation following sexual assault and harassment allegations from four women. The twin exits deepen Democrats' recruitment and image problems ahead of November.

Cassidy Goes Rogue After Primary Loss:

With Sen. Bill Cassidy having lost his primary, the Louisiana Republican — who voted to convict Trump at his impeachment trial — is now free of electoral accountability. He has already moved to oppose Trump's $1.8 billion "anti-weaponization" fund and voted to force the U.S. out of its conflict in Iran. It's a preview of the lame-duck risk Republicans face when incumbents lose primaries.