Daily Republican intelligence digest — May 13, 2026. Covering Senate battlegrounds, primaries, endorsements, and Democratic failures.

Today's Digest

POLL — Pennsylvania Senate: McCormick leads Casey 49–45. A new Emerson College poll shows a 3-point GOP swing from last month as inflation and border concerns dominate among likely voters in the Philadelphia suburbs. Casey's campaign acknowledged "extraordinary headwinds" in a memo to donors.
POLL — Generic ballot: Republicans +5 nationally. The latest RealClearPolitics average shows the GOP with a 5-point congressional generic ballot lead — the widest advantage since 2010. A gap of this size historically translates to 20–30 House seat pickups.
PRIMARY — Arizona: Kari Lake clears the field. Two rivals dropped out and endorsed Lake, setting up a fall matchup against Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego on border-heavy terrain that strongly favors Republicans. Cook Political rates the race a Toss-Up.
ENDORSEMENT — Trump backs Barrett in MI-7; NRSC adds Lombardo (NV) to Battleground 26. Rep. Tom Barrett has outraised his Democrat opponent 3-to-1 in Q1. Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo's addition to the NRSC program unlocks $3.5M in coordinated spending and national staff support.
DEM WATCH — House Democrat under ethics inquiry for double-billing taxpayers $14,000. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) faces an Office of Congressional Ethics inquiry after her office billed the House for travel simultaneously reimbursed by a third-party PAC — the latest ethics headache in a competitive district.
MONEY — NRSC hits record $78M cash on hand; Democrats burning 3-to-1 in toss-up races. McCormick outraises Casey 2-to-1 and holds $4.1M more cash on hand. Senate Leadership Fund has reserved $22M in Georgia and Pennsylvania fall TV time, locking in rates early.

Senate Battleground Tracker

State	Republican	Democrat	R%	D%	Spread	Pollster
Pennsylvania	McCormick	Casey	49	45	R+4	Emerson, 5/10
Georgia	Collins	Ossoff	48	46	R+2	SurveyUSA, 5/8
Arizona	Lake	Gallego	47	46	R+1	OH Predictive, 5/11
Michigan	James	Peters	46	46	TIED	EPIC-MRA, 5/7
Wisconsin	Michels	Baldwin	47	48	D+1	Marquette, 5/9
Nevada	Lombardo	Rosen	48	45	R+3	Trafalgar, 5/12

On the Record

"Democrats spent the last two years inflating your grocery bill, flooding your community with fentanyl, and letting men compete in women's sports. In November, we're going to send them the bill."
— NRSC Chairman Steve Daines, May 12, 2026

Intelligence Digest

2026 Senate Polls: GOP Leads Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona; +5 Generic Ballot | GOP Digest May 13, 2026